Reflation and the Strong Dollar

The U.S. dollar analog continues going strong. In the two charts below, I compare oil and copper. Oil bottomed a little before the U.S. dollar 3-month sell-off concluded in 2016, it bottomed a little before the same dollar move in late 1998. Copper retested its bottom amid the global recession, but it did not make a new low. There are other factors at work, but it's possible a bottom is in even if the dollar marches on to a new high.

On the dollar chart I mark where we are versus the prior point in the cycle. For copper, I marked the dollar analog to this month. For oil, I looked at the bottoms.

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