2017-01-12

The Return of the Eagle

You can't look at any issue in the U.S.-China relationship separately anymore. Under Trump, everything is on the table and the United States has a big advantage over China. If the U.S. can force an economic confrontation, it will hurt China far more than it hurts the United States. China cannot afford an economic war (the yuan is toast in that scenario), and probably for the next 18 months to 2 years at least, the situation will only worsen for China.

SCMP: Trump’s secretary of state nominee Tillerson wants to deny Beijing access to South China Sea islands
Asked whether he supported a more aggressive posture toward China, he said: “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed.”
Luttwak's The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy remains a must read.

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