2016-07-18

Erdoganomics Will Run Turkey Now

ZH: Erdogan Purges 8,000 Cops As Europe Voices Concern Coup Was Staged With "Prepared Arrest Lists"
Reuters reports that at least 8,000 police officers have been removed from their posts, in addition to 1,500 at the ministry of finance, on suspicion of links to Friday's coup.

Thirty regional governors and more than 50 high-ranking civil servants have also been dismissed, CNN Turk said. Thousands of members of the armed forces, from foot soldiers to commanders, were rounded up on Sunday, some shown in photographs stripped to their underpants and handcuffed on the floors of police buses and a sports hall. Several thousand prosecutors and judges have also been removed.

At the same time speculation that the terribly planned "coup" was anything but came from the European Commission itself. As Reuters adds, the swift rounding up of judges and others after a failed coup in Turkey indicated the government had prepared a list beforehand, according to EU commissioner dealing with Turkey's membership bid, Johannes Hahn, said on Monday.

"It looks at least as if something has been prepared. The lists are available, which indicates it was prepared and to be used at a certain stage," Hahn said. "I'm very concerned. It is exactly what we feared."
Al Monitor: What Turkey’s new Central Bank chief means for the economy
For Erdogan, the “merciless” interest rate system is “the biggest weapon of colonialism,” while his political opponents are an “interest-rate lobby” greedy for higher rates. Thus, he believes, interest-free Islamic banking should be strengthened and expanded. Fourteen years into office, Erdogan may have finally found the perfect Central Bank chief to put his rebellious economic vision into practice.

On April 11, Turkey’s Central Bank got its first governor with an Islamic finance background, Murat Cetinkaya, as a replacement to the outgoing Erdem Basci. For the past four years, Cetinkaya served as the bank’s deputy governor, a post he assumed after a career with Islamic banks such as Albaraka Turk and Kuveyt Turk.

The biggest question in Turkey now is whether or not this appointment reflects Erdogan’s Islamist-inspired economic vision, which many have come to call Erdoganomics. The answer is not easy, for both Cetinkaya and his economic views are a mystery to the public.
FT: Turkey cuts rates for fourth consecutive month

More rate cuts are likely coming now that Erdogan has secured power. A dip in inflation is also an excuse for further rate cuts, but that's due to sanctions.

Blooomberg: Turkey Rate Cut Brings Central Bank Closer to Simpler Policy
Annual inflation slowed to 6.58 percent last month, compared with 9.58 percent in January. That drop is mainly due to the Russian ban on food imports from Turkey, where local prices are depressed and will likely remain so as the conflict between the two countries remains unresolved, Morgan Stanley analyst Ercan Erguzel said in an e-mailed note.

With inflation expected to remain below 7 percent during the rest of 2016 and the lira appreciating in real terms since the beginning of the year, the bank can deliver another 50-basis-point cut to the overnight rate, barring a rise in global volatility due to external factors, Erguzel said.

The central bank is scheduled to hold a private meeting with economists from commercial lenders on Wednesday, when policy makers are expected to provide more details on their next steps in the simplification process as well as the pace of cuts, he said.

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