2015-10-15

Liu Junluo Right? Fed Lies or Incompetence, Either Way Rate Hikes Fading Fast

From earlier this year:
Liu Junluo: Fed Needs EM Currency Crash to Justify QE4; Rate Hike Talk A Giant Scam
Liu Junluo: The Fed Will Trap the PBOC
Liu Junluo: The Fed's Rate Hike Lies Will Cause Another Great Depression

Today:
FT: Fed splits fuel doubts on 2015 rate rise
WSJ: Fed Doubts Grow on 2015 Rate Hike

I had expected the Fed to hike rates and for yields to rise slightly as a result, coupled with falling EM currencies (including yuan). I still think the fundamentals favor a rising U.S. dollar, but the natural force of deflation is working against rising interest rates.

Fed policy is mainly irrelevant. The biggest impact of a rate hike would have been to push people off the sidelines. Many people believe in the power of the Fed and blame it for what happens in the economy. Case in point: Fed should not raise interest rates just yet: China Finmin
"The United States isn't at the point of raising interest rates yet and under its global responsibilities it can't raise rates," Lou was quoted as saying.

The finance minister said the United States "should assume global responsibilities" because of the dollar's status as a global currency.
These folks would have blamed the Fed for the resulting crisis. Now the crisis will still happen, and the Fed will say how smart they were to not raise interest rates, thus achieving it's supreme mandate of not getting blamed.

The Federal Reserve had a chance to raise rates in 2014 and 2015, and they missed it. If the window has closed, it won't open again until the end of the decade.

No comments:

Post a Comment