2015-09-17

Bifurcation Continues in August With Only Slight Improvement; New Home Prices Rise 0.17% Nationally

New home prices rose 0.17% month on month in August, faster than the 0.15% increase in July, and the 0.16% increase in June. Prices have stabilized, but are not accelerating.

Shenzhen was responsible for 58% of the price increase in July. The four first-tier cities combined for 95% of the total increase. Things improved slightly in August. Shenzhen accounted for 42% of the increase, while first-tier cities combined for 69% of the total increase. The four first-tier were the top four gainers as well.

Year over year, prices are down 3.2%.

Since 2010, average prices are up 8.3%.

March 2014: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up.
February: 66 cities saw declines in price mom, 2 cities were flat, 2 were up.
March: 49 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 12 were up.
April: 47 cities saw declines in price mom, 5 cities were flat, 18 were up.
May: 41 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 20 were up.
June: 34 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 27 were up.
July: 39 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 31 were up.
August: 26 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 35 were up.

Existing home prices increased 0.24% in August, down from the 0.3% increase in June and July. Prices are down 2.1% yoy. Since 2010, existing homes have risen an average of 3.3%. Shenzhen existing home prices increased 4.4%, Beijing increased 2%, Guangzhou increased 1.0%, Shanghai 1.1%. These four accounted for 51% of the national existing home price increase, slightly higher than July.

Source: 2015年8月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况

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