CASS Predicts Buying Restrictions Will Be Canceled Everywhere in 2015

A soft-landing is expected following the end of buying restrictions in first-tier cities, which is expected in the second half of the year. Differentiation is also the story, both between top tier cities and the lower tiers, and also in terms of time. Some cities may adjust rapidly, but others may need a really long time.

Director of the Research Center for City and Competitiveness, Housing Green Paper editor Ni Pengfei said that this year the housing market will show a trend of double differentiation: First- and second-tier cities will see differentiation from third- fouth-tier cities, second-tier cities demand is strong, inventory consumed quickly, adjustment time is short; third- and four-tier cities have weak demand, supply consumed more slowly, the adjustment time is longer. Secondly, the short-term adjustment and long-term adjustment of differentiation. From the current situation, the possibility of short-term adjustment still exists, and long-term adjustment will take a very long time. In the state of double differentiation adjustment difficult to get out of recession trend, showing a weak overall performance. However, some second-tier cities, especially in first-tier cities and rebound adjustment is possible to achieve in 2015.

Across 54 cities, sales hit 318,000 homes in December, the highest monthly total for the year. First-tier cities had sales of 53,700, a mom gain of 38%. However, while sales were up strongly, some cities didn't see a material improvement in their inventory due to new properties coming to market.

This is mostly the same story as at the end of 2014: prices are still headed lower in 2015, but the first tier and top of the second-tier could bottom first and even rebound in 2015. Other cities will remain in a downtrend, with some second-tier cities possibly adjusting faster than their third- and fourth-tier counterparts that may be headed for a multi-year adjustment (aka bear market).

iFeng: 报告：2015限购或全面退出 房价软着陆为主