People's Daily: Beware of Hidden Agendas Among Housing Bears

Reading the headline, I first thought this was going to be a typical anti-bear piece, but the genuine bears are not the main target. Although it mentions the ulterior motives of foreign investors looking to buy low (what about domestic developers flush with cash and millions upon millions of hopeful home buyers?), the bulk of the warning is aimed at those who seek bailouts, a warning against indebted developers who exaggerate the situation in the hopes of receiving a bailout or major stimulus policy. The leadership really doesn't like calls for stimulus.

人民日报：楼市乃正常调整 警惕别有用心者唱空楼市

Year to date, the country continued downturn in the real estate market volume, for a time, "collapse" theory, " inflection point theory "," bank failures "and other rampant pessimism. Experts pointed out that the property market has entered a period of adjustment to normal, to be alert to people with ulterior motives to sing empty property real purpose - to disrupt the market, misleading policies to meet personal gain.

Prices slowed down

Into 2014, continue to spread throughout a substantial discount promotion estate news, and statistics also show that the property market this year, a little cold. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in May 2014, prices rose significantly reduced the number of cities, some cities home prices declined slightly. New commodity housing (excluding affordable housing) compared with the previous month, 70 cities, prices fell in 35 cities, the city has 20 flat, rising city has 15; hand house prices and the month compared to 70 cities, prices fell in 35 cities, 16 cities were flat, rising city has 19.

Even if the "May Day" holiday period, and Beijing property market downturn. According to statistics, 1 to 3 May, Beijing commercial housing a total turnover plunged 78.9 percent year on year, and reached the lowest value since the 2008 implementation of "May Day" holiday since. Shenzhen same period in real estate transactions representing a decrease of more than Liu Cheng.

"Part of the city due to the inventory pressure, coupled with the recent market expectations is unknown, buyers on the sidelines, some of the housing enterprises launched promotions, cause prices to decline." NBS city's senior statistician, said Liu Jianwei interpretation. Some industry insiders believe that signs of accelerating market adjustment has occurred.

Opinion keen bailout

Part of the property market volume and price down so the market again sing the empty rhetoric of fermentation. 'Houses, the property is not busy season, the property market tier cities have no market price, the bank's monetary tightening real estate, real estate folk who sell more and more, many of the divestment of real estate tycoon ", an article cited evidence that the property market collapse on the network traffic bursting. Some industry chiefs lamented this year's "situation is not good," judgment "to a decline in large real estate cycle stages."

In addition, foreign financial institutions have also joined the ranks of singing empty. French bank Societe Generale economist Yao Wei, China is expected that the real estate adjustment time may be longer than in the past, and the prices are adjusted after a vicious rebound situation does not appear. Morgan Stanley recently published research report, expected within the mainland property market in the next few months will appear sales, average selling price trend of deterioration. Japanese investment bank Nomura Securities released a report that massive excess housing supply, coupled with a shortage of funds the developer, resulting in China's housing market decline. Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, said China's property market has been close to a turning point.

Bearish remarks amplified the property market anxiety, "banks will go bankrupt because of the collapse of the real estate", "local government could not sell the land, finance unsustainable" and fear of further spread, called on the government relaxed the restriction policy sounds more intense bailout.

Those who benefit from it sing the air

In fact, the Chinese had long triumph prices are currently rising just slowed down the pace of it. Data show that the vast majority of urban housing prices continue to rise year on year. In the new commercial housing prices rose in 69 cities, or down in the city has 66. Second-hand housing prices rose in 64 cities, or down in the city has 62.

After years of development and changes in regulation and market, the current Chinese real estate market is entering a period of adjustment. "Our study suggests that the property market this year due to various reasons bound to be an adjustment of the year, but if it follows that the impending collapse of the property market, there cliff downwards, this conclusion overstated." Director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing Qin Hong said.

The reason for the slowdown in the property market, Qin Hong analysis, high growth over the same period last year, sales growth of real estate can not be sustained. The current market demand has been the main demand in their own homes, and just need to improve sexual needs into the mainstream; tightening of personal housing mortgage loans, real impact on people's desire to purchase the realization; opinion downward impact on the real estate market is expected to make There is a demand also caught watching.

Experts believe that the future of the city Town of development, upgrade and stable economic growth and consumption structure, will the real estate market. The future development of the real estate market will simply focus on the past growth in the number, turned more attention to quality improvement.

Why the property market into a normal adjustment period but was some high-profile singing empty? In addition to personal opinion, but do not rule out interest groups by market adjustments make a big fuss, to disturb the market, a change in policy, to meet self-serving purposes.

Bearish downtrend and consequences of exaggerating the property market, implying urged the Government to hasten the purchase of deregulation policy, credit easing, to take bailouts, so that developers can continue to enjoy high prices of bonuses, the continuation of the current easily broken capital chain. The store rooms were sitting on the wealth they can continue to grow. For many hunters China intends foreign real estate, the surface actually do more than sing the air is the trick they used consistently over the years, has long been surprising.