2012-02-20

Supply of homes to surge in March; Beijing real estate market faces first big test in 2012; Polls indicate lower prices

Next month we will learn whether Beijing's real estate market is in a slowdown or a prelude to collapse. Twenty-one properties will hit the market and thus far, only four have given firm pricing. March's new supply exceeds the total supply for January and February. Most of the new buildings are located in the outer suburbs of Beijing: Changping, Fangshan and Daxing.

下月21个楼盘羞答答入市 仅4个项目给出明确报价

不过,对于各界关注的价格,开发商却遮遮掩掩。亚豪机构统计数据显示,3月21个计划开盘项目中,有15个给出了报价,然而开发商的报价方式却发生了明显转变,有7个项目报出了一个大致的价格区间,4个项目仅报出了项目的最低售价。只有4个项目给出相对明确的均价,而这4个项目的整体开盘均价为17500元/平米。
Of the 21 buildings, 15 have given some indication of price. Seven have given price ranges, four have announced the lowest priced apartment, and four have given clear pricing. Those latter four buildings have an average price of 17500 yuan/square meter. Some of the properties have much higher prices, in the range of 30000 to 40000 yuan/square meter. The situation makes sense: the developers targeting the broad section of the middle class have announced prices that are not high, while those at the higher end of the middle class market are more cautious.

Elsewhere, there was a Beijing Evening News/Sina poll asking where respondents see the real estate market headed.

北京晚报联合新浪乐居调查:低地价就有低房价

A couple of questions are specific to the Wangjing area, but the last three are general (percentages as of 3 PM Beijing time):


4.您认为北京房价是否目前已经探底? (Do you think Beijing real estate prices have bottomed?)

是 (Yes) 16%
否 (No) 84%

5.您认为北京房价在未来两年内的趋势是?(In the next two years, you think Beijing real estate will trend?)

逐步降低 (Progressively lower) 47.3%
趋于稳定 (Stabilize) 20.7%
未来会有反弹 (There will be a bounce) 19.1%
难以判断 (Hard to say) 12.9%

6.您认为开发商是否会低于地价卖房?(Do you think developers will sell homes below the cost of land?)

绝无可能 (Absolutely not) 64.6%
有可能 (Maybe) 35.4%

If you click through to the poll, on the right hand is Sina's mascot. Clicking it will open a pie chart that shows the geographic location of respondents who gave that answer. At the top are also options to change the look of the results (pie chart, columns) as well as data on all poll respondents. As of 3 PM, 5500 people had responded. At that time, 39.4% were from Beijing. In question 5, Beijing respondents were more likely to expect lower prices: about 43% chose the first response. They were also more likely to have chosen the second answer to question 6. However, overall the numbers were very similar, showing only a slight difference of opinion in Beijing. The biggest came in the question regarding prices in the Wangjing area of Beijing, which non-Beijing residents would know less about. Overall, it shows that Beijing serves as a psychological bellwether for the national real estate market.

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