2011-12-06

Liu Junluo: if Italy or Spain default, Chinese stock market will drop 40%

So says Liu Junluo in his latest blog, titled: In the theater watching Spain default (电影院里看西班牙违约). He first quotes from his 2010 book (he mainly puts his thoughts into books now, instead of on the blog), in which he says Europe only delayed the Greek bankruptcy and that China stupidly bought euros as the U.S. dollar index tumbled in June and July 2010. He also discusses bank stress tests and related topics. To this he adds new comments:
1年以后的2011年10月底,欧洲正式决定希腊国家债务违约,债务减计50%。如果,我们能够把欧洲问题向一年以前看,那么,中国和欧洲之间是上演了一场银行和借款人之间的电影。现在,连笨蛋都知道欧洲正式决定希腊国家债务违约,只会鼓励西班牙和意大利最终进入选择性违约。所以,我们不需要用1年的时间就可以看到西班牙或意大利违约了。
在2010年初,我提出——美国这个世界警察准备退场了,全球各地将会陷入大规模地区动荡。现在,随着“阿拉伯之春”的临近尾声,中国在阿拉伯地区投资也陷入了灾难,而很快我们也会看到中国在非洲的投资同样是陷入灾难。这个损失是5000亿美元还是8000亿美元,只有“天知道”。
事情是需要巧合,所以,在《欧元巴别塔——黄金套利中国》一书中,说的很清楚——中国股市已经没有任何意义可以来理解。我们应该知道,中国人现在应该努力祈祷西班牙和意大利未来千万不要违约。如果,西班牙或意大利出现违约,那么中国股市就是1000点以下。同时,西班牙或意大利出现违约,也只是欧洲和美国核心层联合导演的“大片”吧。

Translation is mine (not 100%, but better than Google):
One year later at the end of October, Europe formally decided to let Greece default, with 50% write downs. If we look at this a year earlier, China and Europe are the bank and borrower in the movie. Now, even the fools know that the formal decision to let Gerece default will encourage Spain and Italy to default. So, we don't need one year to see Spain and Italy in default.
In early 2010, I suggested that the policeman of the world, USA, was preparing to exit, and all over the world, in every region, would be large scale unrest. Along with the "Arab Spring" approaching epilogue, Chinese investment in the Arab region sinks into disaster, and we'll soon see China's African investments similarly fall into catastrophe. The losses will be $500 billion or $800 billion, only God knows.
Things need coincidence, therefore in , (I) said very clearly—China's stock market already has no meaning that can be understood. We ought to know, Chinese should pray with great effort that Spain and Italy do not default. If Spain or Italy default, then China's stock market will be 1000 points lower. At the same time, as Spain or Italy default, this is also Europe and America's alliance directed "blockbuster movie."

No comments:

Post a Comment