2011-08-11

Socionomics—the nitty gritty

The main argument put forth by socionomics is that arrow of causation moves from mood to action. Most people believe mood is affected by actions, thus they see the cycle in terms of actions leading to a rise or fall in mood, which leads to another action, etc. In the midst of a cycle, to some degree it doesn't matter because whether the chicken or the egg, the result is the same. It is critically important, however, at turning points. Those looking at actions will predict the trend to continue for a long time, when in fact the mood has shifted.

This isn't a post about a turning point though, it's a look at one of the more nuanced effects of social mood. Grasping the effect of mood on stock markets and popular culture is straight forward, but how about the number of accidents? The Socionomics Institute published an article earlier this year on Aircraft Accidents. The data set is small, but for the period studied, it showed correlation with the stock market.

Now consider an ongoing story that has been burning up weibo all summer. The Forbidden Palace Museum staff have been smashing up ancient relics at a steady pace and it's drawing the attention of the media and government.
The wave of blunders began May 8 when a lone burglar slipped past the museum's supposedly impenetrable alarm and camera systems and snatched valuable cosmetic cases and purses on loan from the Liang Yi Collection in Hong Kong. The thief apparently scaled a 10-meter wall and escaped a security guard's custody.

One the heels of that gaffe, rumors spread on the Internet that the museum's newly renovated Jianfu Palace, usually closed to the public, was being used for gatherings of an exclusive club's ultra-wealthy members.

Perhaps even more mortifying for museum managers was a July 30 microblog posting that quickly went viral with claims that a precious Song Dynasty porcelain plate had been broken during a routine procedure, and the loss had been covered up by museum officials.

Next, termites initially found in 2006 feasting on wood in some of the palace's nearly 1,000 buildings were rediscovered, leading some experts to conclude that five years of pest controls had failed. Caixin has learned that the insects have spread and, unless checked soon, could eat the Forbidden City to the ground.

Palace Museum managers even shot themselves in the foot while trying to make up for the string of mistakes.
The staff handed a giant thank-you in the form of a colorful banner to police officers who helped nab the cosmetics case thief. But missing from the banner's message was the character for the word "protecting." In its place was the character for "shaking." The staff thus thanked the police for "shaking the country."
China Asks: What's Eating the Forbidden City?

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