2010-10-05

Maybe this time it should be yuan and gold...

Almost a year ago I wrote Deflation, Chinese yuan, gold and other connections
The yuan could be the critical currnecy. As the "whither depegging" article discusses, if the yuan started appreciating now it could cause an acceleration away from the U.S. dollar. That would cause gold and other commodities to gain and give the Federal Reserve a huge headache.
Now it seems the Fed wants to have this headache, but the point about gold is what I'm thinking about. Oil shot up during the last revaluation because China was building petroleum reserves and energy was a big investment theme. What do Chinese want to buy today? Yes, they still need oil and natural resources, but to my mind, what's more popular (besides real estate, which should also appreciate) is gold.

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