2010-09-22

Liu Jun Luo expects deflationary forces

美元、人民币、黄金、常识+公告
今年最后一天的2010年12月31日,将是小布什先生的美国历史上最大的十年期减税政策的自动到期。如果,美国国会和奥巴马先生不能再签署新的减税政策,那2011年1月1日,美国世界就将进入中性的紧缩财政时代。2001年本人上书中国高层及中国媒体呼吁,中国必须建立由石油、黄金、农田、水资源、稀缺矿藏、煤、森林等等的——次级金本位,来对抗美元的大规模贬值周期的出现。因为,道理是一个简单的常识,就是2001年美国历史上最大规模财政赤字周期的开动。在过去十年中,中国官方外汇储备是全力大规模持有美元,这场的大背景是美国的高财政赤字与接近零的储蓄率,高财政赤字与接近零的储蓄率必然衍生出高贸易赤字。所以,中国官方外汇储备是在美国政策主导的美元大贬值周期中,作出英勇的无私牺牲。2010年,美国世界出现了史无前例的转变,美国的储蓄率上升至6.5%与7800万婴儿潮的大规模退休的启动,包括美国在2011年1月1日的中性紧缩财政时代的开启。2010年,更让我困惑的是中国央行的全力官方外汇储备多元化政策,难道我们是“伤疤未好痛已忘”。

The last day of the year on Dec. 31, 2010, Mr. Bush will be the largest in U.S. history a decade of tax cuts automatically expire. If the U.S. Congress and Mr. Obama can not sign new tax cuts, that January 1, 2011, the United States will enter the world of tight fiscal times neutral. In 2001 I released a letter to top Chinese and Chinese media have called for China to establish oil, gold, farmland, water resources, scarcity of minerals, coal, forests, etc. - and secondary gold standard, to confront the dollar's massive devaluation of the emergence period. Because reason is a simple common sense, that is, in 2001 the largest deficit in U.S. history, the start cycle. In the past decade, China's official foreign exchange reserves are large-scale effort to hold dollar, this is a great background of high U.S. fiscal deficit and near-zero savings rate, high fiscal deficit and near-zero savings rate must rise to the high trade deficit. Therefore, China's official foreign exchange reserves in the U.S. dollar devaluation policy-led cycle, to heroic and selfless sacrifice. 2010, the United States and the world of unprecedented change, the U.S. savings rate rose to 6.5% and the 78 million baby boomers start to retire a large scale, including the United States in January 1, 2011 the neutral era of tight finances. 2010, made me confused is the full official central bank reserve diversification policy, should we be "a wound hurts not been forgotten."
The inflation happened in the 2000s, the U.S. dollar was devalued and now the U.S. is facing demographic headwinds and political forces that will tighten fiscal policy. Liu appears not to anticipate a tea-party led victory for the GOP, but at this point it seems that if the GOP picks up enough seats, even the tax cuts for the wealthy will be on the table. However, if the tax cuts do expire, it would be massively deflationary because it would cut twice. First, it would take money out of the pockets of taxpayers and shift it to the less efficient government sector, reducing the impact of this spending by some factor. Second, it would reduce the need for U.S. borrowing, which would also reduce the amount of credit creation in the system. Since private credit would also tighten, as consumers had less disposable income, this would be overall deflationary.

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