2009-02-23

Loans Fueling Stock Speculation

Last week I linked to story on Chinese loan growth funneling into the stock market. (See 为什么大陆股市反弹?)

Now Caijing tackles the topic in Decoding the 1.6 Trillion Enigma.

When companies get a loan, they can put a portion of the money in their business accounts, use a portion to raise capital and buy bonds, and keep the rest in hand for immediate uses. Deducting the amount money that went into these four outlets, there was still 830 billion yuan of the January loans that cannot be explained – that’s 500 to 600 billion more yuan compared to the previous two years. This chunk of untracked money probably found its way into the stock market, awaiting the rebound of share prices.

We found strong correlation of 0.66 between the unexplainable part of increased loans and the price hike of Shanghai stock index in the last three years.


沈明高:1月贷款“井喷”之谜
沈明高认为,信贷资金主要有三个去向:流入股市、直接用于投资和转为个人储蓄存款。经初步估算,最多有5000亿-6000亿元的信贷资金进入股市。沈明高是从企业资金使用的角度来分析企业信贷资金的流向。他指出,企业从银行贷入的资金可能转变为企业存 款、流通中的现金、在一级市场认购股票和缴税。
  但即便排除上述四个资金流向,今年1月贷款仍有8300亿元的资金无法解释去向,较2007年2月和2008年2月(均为春节所在月份)分别多5000亿元和6000亿元左右。沈明高认为,由于股市回暖,上述5000亿-6000亿元不可解释的资金中的一部分,有可能流入股市,期待2009年的股市上涨。他指出,过去三年数据分析显示,贷款中的不可解释部分和上证综指有着较强的正相关关系:上证综指上涨较多的月份通常是贷款中不可解释部分上升的时期。这个趋势在2006年后尤其明显。具体从数量上看,若仅分析前三年一季度(共十个月)中贷款不可解释部分和上证综指的关系,其相关系数高达0.66。

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